Responding to Putin’s Power Play
Sun Tzu: Defeat Putin's Plan
The Russian military buildup around Ukraine is deeply concerning. The indicators of a real preparation for invasion are growing. This has led to many “expert” opinions about how to respond.
Some commentators suggest cutting back on military forces or exercises in Europe or reducing aid to Ukraine to appease Putin. Others recommend threatening greater sanctions. Appeasement will be counterproductive because extortionists keep asking for more. Certainly, additional sanctions should be imposed but they are slow acting and have a limited impact on Russia. Most Russian exports are oil and gas their customers need to buy as much as Russia needs to sell. With the gas shortage, Putin likely believes he can frighten and coerce Europe enough to block new sanctions and get old sanctions removed. All while seizing many regions of Ukraine without a threat from outside militaries. European leaders will not want to shut down large swaths of their economy this winter when energy supplies run low.
Another theme is that Ukraine is not a vital interest for the US while Russia considers Ukraine part of its sphere of influence and a vital interest. I disagree with the former and believe the latter to be irrelevant. The Ukrainian People have a right to self-determination. The US has a vital interest in protecting all democracies just as during the Cold War.
These themes are usually paired with a recommendation for the US not to go to war with Russia over Ukraine. The risk of escalation to nuclear war would be great. I agree. Nuclear powers should avoid direct fighting because of this risk. But supplying the Ukrainians would be little different than supplying the Afghan mujahedeen or the Soviets supplying the North Koreans or North Vietnamese during the Cold War. The best difference is that Ukraine is a democracy with a citizenry that is willing to fight for their freedom and independence from Putin’s tyranny.
The best course of action is to guarantee that Putin cannot achieve his plan.
First, the US should commit to supplying Ukraine with all the material and training needed to continue fighting until Russia is driven out. Ensure Putin knows he will face an endless war if he attacks. Reinforce this with support to stabilize the Ukrainian economy and aid for internally displaced people. Ideally, the US should build a coalition bringing NATO and other allies together to accomplish this.
Second, the US Congress should provide the President with authority to declare an energy emergency allowing the diversion of all US energy exports to democratic nations and away from autocracies. Overriding any commercial contracts or trade agreements with autocracies. In support of this, expedite development of more LNG export facilities.
Enlist Australia in this effort to shift the gas they normally sell to China to Asian democracies. Allowing more US gas to be shipped to Europe. Transferring part of the impact of Russia’s power play onto China. This is a good year to demonstrate the unity of the democracies. Plus, payback for China harassing Australian trade.
A unifying play for the democracies. This would be a preliminary example of how an Alliance of Democracies can protect the free world from manipulation by the autocracies. China will boisterously complain but may put pressure on Russia to resume full gas exports to try to head off passage of this law.
Third, offer Ukraine the protection of the US nuclear umbrella. Provide Ukraine with a formal treaty passed by a large bipartisan majority that the US will defend Ukraine from CBRN attacks. Classify attacks on Ukraine’s nuclear power plants as a triggering condition. Take away the coercive power of nuclear or chemical blackmail. Provide a warning shot to Putin that using WMDs out of frustration over losing conventionally in Ukraine will not be tolerated. A substantive treaty is needed to show deep bipartisan support and place the honor and prestige of the US on the line. Making Putin far likelier to believe it. Therefore, less likely to test the limit.
A fourth and more extreme recommendation is for Germany to destroy the Nord Stream Two (NS2) pipelines in German waters to demonstrate their serious concern about Russian energy manipulation. Like Cortez burning his ships, leaving only one option available. Germany can make it clear to Russia the Ukrainian pipeline must remain operational if they wish to sell customary levels of gas to Europe. Major combat in Ukraine would risk the destruction of this pipeline. Germany could inspire the EU towards more unity with great leadership standing against Russian manipulation.
(Germany could completely pay off the NS2 owners’ costs for less than the five-year cost of one US armored brigade. Far less than they have failed to spend in the last decade to meet their NATO defense spending promise of two percent of GDP.)
Putin’s supreme objective, like all autocrats, is regime survival. Successful coercive brinksmanship or blitzkrieg into Ukraine that achieves concessions from Ukraine, NATO, and the EU would enhance his survival to the detriment of the free world. Getting bogged down in an endless war in Ukraine will threaten Putin’s regime and personal survival.
As Sun-tzu wrote, “The highest realization of warfare is to attack the enemy’s plans; next is to attack their alliances; next to attack their army…”
President Biden must convince Putin that an attack upon Ukraine will result in a long, hard-fought war that could be his downfall. He must build a strong bipartisan and multinational bloc to counter Russian aggression and manipulation. Show Putin that instigating problems to manipulate others will be challenged by the free world cooperatively and decisively. Deter his plans.
If deterrence doesn’t work…
Russia failed to quell the Chechen insurgency in 1994-1996 with 54 soldiers, police, and other security forces per 1000 population. In the 1999-2004 war, Russia needed 90 personnel per 1000 population to subdue Chechnya. A comparable ratio in Ukraine would require almost two million personnel in the security forces east of the Dnipro River. Far more to occupy and control all of Ukraine.
The vastness of Ukraine will prevent Russia from occupying all the land with strong forces. They will have to spread out in small units to control the land or concentrate in stronger formations to control key places and routes. The latter means the Ukrainian Army can operate in the gaps and strike at Russian logistics. The former means Russian forces will be spread too thin to be effective. Either way will allow Ukraine to defeat the Russian Army in detail, if properly prepared and resourced.
Ukraine has enough people willing to fight for their country. They don’t need foreign soldiers, just adequate support and moral courage from the West.
If you like this post, let me know at the top of the article and share it far and wide on social media.