Relentless Ukraine
Russia can only defeat Ukraine if Ukrainians surrender.
Посилання на українську версію цієї статті.
In preparing for war with Russia, the first and most important point to be made is that Ukraine cannot be defeated if the government and people do not stop fighting. Believe it or not, the Ukrainian nation and Ukrainian people are stronger now, than at any time in history. Hundreds of years of repression by czars and commissars could not destroy the Ukrainian people, language, or identity. Vladimir Putin and modern Russia has far less relative power available to destroy Ukraine than his predecessors. It is important to have faith that Ukraine will continue regardless of Russia’s actions.
Furthermore, regardless of the plans and actions of the Ukrainian government, the Ukrainian people and identity will continue. This is a testament to the value that the Ukrainian People put on their identity. As poorly served as the Ukrainian People have been by their leaders over the decades and centuries, they continue to persevere. Hoping and striving for a better future.
This newsletter begins with these assumptions. Ukraine will win the war against Russia because Ukraine cannot be defeated. Future articles will offer ideas to hasten the win and to reduce the costs of the war in lives and money.
Attack the Enemy’s Plans
Sun Tzu said, “The highest realization of warfare is to attack the enemy’s plans; next is to attack their alliances; next to attack their army; and the lowest is to attack their fortified cities.” This is still good advice for crafting a strategy. Creating a defense where the enemy has no way to achieve his plan or goals is good deterrence.
Russia can gain very little and may lose much from an additional small attack. They already have political leverage from occupying the Donbass and Crimea. Only a large and successful blitzkrieg attack will create strong political leverage for Putin. An attack that will frighten the Ukrainian and EU governments into agreeing to his terms of control and relief from sanctions.
Never Quit!
Ukraine needs to commit to never quitting the fight, never surrendering, and not agreeing to a Minsk 3. If Russia escalates the war again, fight until Ukraine wins. Don’t let the US or EU pressure Ukraine into a ceasefire. Russia failed to quell the Chechen insurgency in 1994-1996 with 54 soldiers, police, and other security forces per 1000 population. In the 1999-2004 war, Russia needed 90 security personnel per 1000 population to subdue Chechnya. A comparable ratio in Ukraine would require almost two million personnel in the occupying security forces east of the Dnipro River. Far more to occupy and control all of Ukraine.
As Russia did against Napoleon, the USSR and the British did against Nazi Germany, the North Vietnamese did against the US, and the Americans did against the British in the war for independence, refusing to surrender or come to terms broke their enemy’s plans. The outsiders did not have the strength or will to maintain the wars. Ukraine can do the same to Russia. The President and Verkhovna Rada should make this national policy and repeat it often. Break the Russian plans by preparing the Ukrainian People for a relentless defense. Add “Never Quit! We Fight Until Victory!” to “Слава Україні! Героям Слава!”
“Слава Україні! Героям Слава!” “Ніколи Не Здавайся! Ми Борімося Доти Перемоги!”
Historically, invaders of Russia had to contend with vast amounts of territory that allowed Russian forces to slip away and fight another day. Today, because of the limited Russian population and Army personnel, the vast lands of Ukraine will have the same effect on an invading Russian Army. They cannot hope to occupy all the land with strong forces. They will have to spread out in small units to control the land or concentrate in stronger formations to control key places and routes. The latter means the Ukrainian Army can operate in the gaps and strike at Russian forces. The former means Russian forces will be spread too thin to be effective. Either way means the Ukrainian Army can defeat the Russian Army in detail, if properly prepared.
The Russian Army’s limited amount of infantry forces will make it difficult to fully contain more than a small envelopment. Ukrainian soldiers should be trained to fight in small groups. Learning to evaluate when to fight their way out of an encirclement, allowing themselves to be bypassed, or escaping and evading enemy forces. Even when the Russians complete an encirclement, their need to continue the advance will soon open exploitable gaps. All soldiers should be taught to understand combat like airborne soldiers. There may be times when they are cut off and surrounded. But they can and must continue fighting with the same stubbornness demonstrated in 2014 and 2015
Historically, a commander would surrender his whole unit when he surrendered. This is not practical in a modern decentralized execution military. Surrendering their unit should be an unlawful order for Ukrainian commanders. Only allow commanders to surrender themselves. Instead, it should be every soldier’s obligation to try to escape if captured and to evade capture if possible. This will prevent soldiers from being accused of false surrendering if they keep fighting after their commander surrenders. Secondly, it addresses concerns by some Ukrainian soldiers that their commander may be a traitor who will surrender them to the Russians in wartime. Thirdly, it may have a deterrent effect on a Russian calculation about invading. Facing an army of soldiers already psychologically prepared for fighting in small units even when surrounded is very difficult.
This concept must be applied differently in the Navy. A ship commander must make the decision for the whole crew of the ship. The ship's captain should never be allowed to surrender their ship. Ships should fight until it is not possible to fight. Hurt the enemy as much as possible. Then have the sailors abandon ship and scuttle it to prevent capture.
At What Cost?
The issue for Ukraine is not whether it is possible to win against Russia. The real issue is at what cost. As Col. Glen Grant has said many times, “a small Soviet Army cannot beat a large Soviet Army.” Neither the Ukrainian Army, nor the military as a whole, is currently designed or prepared to defeat the Russian military. The plan to stop Russian forces with like forces will attrit both equally. The Russian ground forces combined with vastly superior air and naval forces will destroy the Ukrainian military if this is tried. After that, if Ukraine does not sue for peace, there is a chance for a slow grinding insurgency against Russian forces while a new army is trained and equipped. All the while Ukraine will suffer under continuing attacks, diminishing resources, increasing debt, and incurring several hundred thousand, perhaps millions of casualties. Russia will use the tactics they practice in Syria to subdue Ukraine.
The recommendations in this newsletter are for a redesigned Ukrainian military and strategy for defeating Russia. At the heart is a military structure designed to conduct a mobile defensive war with good situational awareness and many standoff weapons. With this design, Ukraine can achieve a highly favorable casualty ratio. So more Ukrainians will survive to enjoy the peace.
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